The most accurate way to read Ethiopia now is as a market in which reform is becoming visible before risk has meaningfully receded. The growth outlook is stronger, external partners are re-engaging, and the Government is making a more credible case that the economy is moving back towards normalisation. however, the commercial judgement still rests on whether the gains in inflation, reserves and investor sentiment can hold against the harder realities of debt litigation, imported energy stress and a Northern political settlement that looks less secure than it did even a few months ago. Ethiopia is becoming easier to argue for, but it is still the kind of market where confidence must be earned rather than assumed.
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