Eastern Africa Association
Eastern Africa Association
The Eastern Africa Association is a source of insightful and helpful publications, guides, and advice for all visitors to our website. Contributors include EAA analysts, our Members, and a wide range of experts and official commentators. As a key service for Members only, we produce a regular Newsletter which contains our analysis of developments in the region.
You can search for material using the filters below, or access the latest publications in the library further down the page.
Ethiopia continues to pursue its ambition to achieve access to the sea through its MoU with Somaliland, all while dialling down the rhetoric and pursuing a more diplomatic approach, which could open a path to talks with Somalia. A Cabinet reshuffle continues to consolidate Prime Minister Abiy’s hold on the administration. On international trade, the country made significant progress on economic cooperation with Kenya and compliance with a number of AfCFTA commitments.
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Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland has cast the country into yet another high stakes dispute, with potential to drag it into conflict with its neighbors and affecting stability in the wider Horn of Africa region, and potentially beyond. Currently no efforts to begin mediation have been successful, so where the dispute goes from here is highly uncertain.
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Ethiopia still faces difficulties bringing its Amhara and Oromia conflicts to an end, which continue to impact investor perceptions of the market, and remain a drain on Government resources. New investment is still only trickling in. An investment grade downgrade by Fitch spelt bad news for the economy but debt relief from international institutions is on the horizon.
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Nervousness remains over Ethiopia’s ability to hold the peace in Tigray and re-establish order over other restive provinces, particularly Amhara. However, Ethiopia’s international partners are eager to normalise relations, and the Government is stepping up efforts to liberalise aspects of the economy, with signs that economic growth is picking up.
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Just as Ethiopia was righting itself after the Tigray conflict, a new outbreak of violence between the Federal Government and local militias in Amhara threatens to derail the restoration of peace and prosperity in the country. While international bodies and investors are concerned, the Government seeks to restore control through a State of Emergency. The renewed conflict is a reminder of the broader constitutional complexities in Ethiopia which still need to be resolved. Nonetheless, the economy continues to grow, and IMF/WB talks with the Government are progressing well.
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With improving international relations, particularly with key Western partner the United States, and an economic peace dividend from the end of the Tigray conflict emerging, Ethiopia’s prospects are improving. The Government is forging ahead with economic reform programmes, and actively seeking foreign investment.
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Progress continues to be made on implementing the Tigray Peace Agreement, drawing a line under the bloody two-year-old conflict, though the lingering presence of Eritrean troops poses a potential threat to its success. The Government seems intent on reaping a peace dividend as it presses ahead with its reform programme, focusing on liberalising the banking, telecoms and logistics sectors.
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2023 is looking to be a considerably brighter year for Ethiopia as the peace in Tigray appears to be holding and both sides implement terms of the Peace Accord. While rebuilding costs are very considerable, and instability continues to plague parts of the country, the Government appears intent on restoring an attractive environment for international investors and is driving a number of initiatives to increase FDI.
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Ethiopia’s prospects have brightened considerably since the ceasefire in the Tigray war and the apparently successful peace accords. While there will still be obstacles to a lasting peace and constitutional settlement, most observers agree that the war is now over. Economic activity is picking up and the Government is pursuing a variety of valuable economic reform measures.
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