Eastern Africa Association
Eastern Africa Association
The Eastern Africa Association is a source of insightful and helpful publications, guides, and advice for all visitors to our website. Contributors include EAA analysts, our Members, and a wide range of experts and official commentators. As a key service for Members only, we produce a regular Newsletter which contains our analysis of developments in the region.
You can search for material using the filters below, or access the latest publications in the library further down the page.
As long as the Iran conflict continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy facilities in the Middle East face damage, the world is likely to see shortage of both oil and gas. The resulting increase in prices is likely to have a significant impact on the global economy which prior to 28th February 2026 was showing signs of growth. The world is facing considerable uncertainty going forward, which does not bode well.
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Politically the country is going through some turmoil and with it heading to elections in a little under 18 months, we are likely to see more confusion. The economy is projected to slow down with the impact of the Middle East conflict and seeking funds from the World Bank and IMF will see strict conditions placed. Reducing expenditure is the key but one the Government does not seem aligned to.
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The Commission of Inquiry into the unrest during the October 2025 elections is expected to issue its report on 24th April. The release was delayed by 63 days due to the high number of inputs that were received. The economy is performing well and expected to be one of the fastest growing in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Uganda remains politically stable. The country’s economy is growing rapidly and expected to grow further as the oil project comes to fruition.
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Rwanda remains politically stable. The DRC conflict is creating issues for the country, including sanctions on its army, and while there is a commitment by all parties to reduce fighting, on the ground things seem to be different. The economy continues to grow at above average levels but the Middle East conflict is bringing back inflationary pressures.
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The most accurate way to read Ethiopia now is as a market in which reform is becoming visible before risk has meaningfully receded. The growth outlook is stronger, external partners are re-engaging, and the Government is making a more credible case that the economy is moving back towards normalisation. however, the commercial judgement still rests on whether the gains in inflation, reserves and investor sentiment can hold against the harder realities of debt litigation, imported energy stress and a Northern political settlement that looks less secure than it did even a few months ago. Ethiopia is becoming easier to…
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Somaliland has again become an external test of Somalia’s territorial claim. Offshore oil is drawing in harder security commitments and, potentially, a sharper distinction between preferred partners and slower incumbents. Meanwhile, rising fuel costs are reminding everyone that geopolitical shocks do not stay offshore for long.
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