Eastern Africa Association
Eastern Africa Association
The Eastern Africa Association is a source of insightful and helpful publications, guides, and advice for all visitors to our website. Contributors include EAA analysts, our Members, and a wide range of experts and official commentators. As a key service for Members only, we produce a regular Newsletter which contains our analysis of developments in the region.
You can search for material using the filters below, or access the latest publications in the library further down the page.
The EAA produces a constant source of news, hold events and speaks to experts on the ground to help inform our members
Presentation to EAA By: Jessen Coolen Economic Research Lead Strategy, Research & Development & Arnaud Levasseur Executive Vice-President Global Trade Solutions from Mauritius Commercial Bank
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Negotiations with bondholders collapsed in October 2025 meaning Ethiopia has defaulted. The alternative is to tap the Ethiopian diaspora and increase gold reserves, both of which are underway. Major infrastructure projects, including a new airport, are on the cards.
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Ethiopia is emerging from years of internal conflict, although issues remain. The country is opening up its economy to Foreign Direct Investment and while there is someway to go, Ethiopia does appear to be on the right track.
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Presentation to the The Eastern Africa Association By: Mr. Kihara Maina, Regional CEO, I&M Group Ltd July-2025
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Ethiopia is gradually working its way back into respectability with the West and the Prime Minister is fully aware of the importance of this. Relationships with Somalia are improving. The economy is recovering after years of bitter conflict and investment interest is rising.
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Rook Consulting Limited presentation at the EAA breakfast meeting By: James Kirimi
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Crystal Advocates presentation at the EAA breakfast meeting By: Denis Yekoyasi Kakembo
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While regional tensions in the country continue, the IMF has given its support to Ethiopia’s progress. There remain things to be done for the economy to open up fully but Ethiopia appears to be on the right track.
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Eastern Africa Association breakfast meeting presentation by British International investment
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While Ethiopia continues to face internal ethnic strife and there is a risk of this escalating, the country is opening up to foreign investment and its economy is on a growth trend.
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“Monopoly is a terrible thing – until you get one’’ Rupert Murdoch
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Ethiopia continues to manage the stabilisation of the conflict regions in the country although this will not be an overnight fix. The economy is performing well despite the reduction in aid by the US and the fact that Ethiopia has not be reinstated to the AGOA scheme.
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EAA Breakfast meeting presentation by Dr. Dipankar Acharya CEO APA Insurance Kenya PhD; FIII; MBA .
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This presentation is private and confidential and is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by Zephyr Management, L.P. (“Zephyr” or the “manager”). By accepting this document you agree not to transmit, reproduce or make available all or any part of the document to any other person or entity without the prior written consent of Zephyr.
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Ethiopia is ramping up its plans to reform the economy and make it easier for foreign investors. The establishment of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange is a step in the right direction.
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EAA Members’ Meeting- November 2024 Economic Landscape Review – Uganda By Robin Bairstow Chief Executive Officer – I&M Bank Uganda
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Eastern Africa Association December 2024 – Overview of Tax Laws Amendment Bill and Tax Procedures Bill, 2024
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Internal and external tensions continue to plague Ethiopia. The economy is benefitting from the Foreign Exchange reforms.
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At stake is the opportunity to free up funds, reduce the cost of capital and make investment go further in periods of uncertainty. PwC Working Capital Study 24/25
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Implications of the nullification of the Finance Act 2023 Eastern Africa Association (EAA)
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Ethiopia’s current political and economic landscape is fraught with challenges. However, proactive engagement with international partners and strategic domestic reforms, presents opportunities for recovery and stability. As the nation strives to stabilise its economy and manage public discontent, the collaboration with the regional and international actors such as the IMF provides an important lifeline.
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Eastern Africa Association September 2024 – Presentation by Rishit Shah – PwC TZ
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Positive economic reforms, particularly the flotation of the Birr, continue to increase Ethiopia’s attractiveness as an investment destination, all while, concerns remain about the speed of implementation of these changes. The security situation in various parts of the country remain tense and new splits in the Tigray region threaten a return of instability there.
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An overview of the NHIF / SHIF and AHA conundrum – Presentation to the Eastern Africa Association
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The conflicts in Ethiopia are continuing with no obvious end in sight. A number of economic reforms are ongoing and the economy is growing despite challenges.
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Eastern Africa Business Association June 2024 – Overview of Tax – Finance Bill, 2024
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Anxieties are rising over an apparent proliferation of new inter-regional and communal conflicts across different parts of the country, as well as a deterioration of long-running ones. This is having a detrimental effect on Ethiopia’s fiscal stability, exacerbated by a growing debt problem. However, the economy is showing robust growth and a National Dialogue process aimed at achieving settlement of various conflicts is finally underway.
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KAM IMF Presentation on 8th April 2024 by Anthony Mwangi CEO
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Concerns remain high about Ethiopia’s lingering internal conflicts, which threaten political stability and economic progress. Continued but slow progress continues on the economic front with the launch of the country’s securities exchange, and growth forecasts are down.
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The government plans to introduce several tax policy measures envisioned in the Rwanda Medium Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) aiming at improving revenue administration and cutting tax rates while broadening the tax base.
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In 2023, KRA introduced Etims, a cloud-based software, an upgrade of TIMS that makes it easy for VAT- registered businesses to connect their accounting system to KRA without the need to use ETR TIMS devices
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Ethiopia continues to pursue its ambition to achieve access to the sea through its MoU with Somaliland, all while dialling down the rhetoric and pursuing a more diplomatic approach, which could open a path to talks with Somalia. A Cabinet reshuffle continues to consolidate Prime Minister Abiy’s hold on the administration. On international trade, the country made significant progress on economic cooperation with Kenya and compliance with a number of AfCFTA commitments.
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•Pursuant to the ruling of the Court of Appeal delivered on 19 January 2024, the Social Health Insurance Act, 2023 became operational effectively replacing the NHIF Act. •The draft Social Health Insurance (General) Regulations, 2023 set the monthly deductions at 2.75% of an individual’s gross salary or wage of the household. The contribution is not capped.
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Uganda hosted the 19th Summit of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Heads of State and Government, a forum of 120 member states from 15 to 20 January 2024, at the Munyonyo Commonwealth Resort. Then from 21 to 23 January, at the same venue, Uganda hosted the Third South Summit organized under the framework of Group 77 and China, a loose alliance of developing countries.
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Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland has cast the country into yet another high stakes dispute, with potential to drag it into conflict with its neighbors and affecting stability in the wider Horn of Africa region, and potentially beyond. Currently no efforts to begin mediation have been successful, so where the dispute goes from here is highly uncertain.
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Amplifying Africa’s talent powerhouse and growth potential and Kenya’s advancement in innovator services and role as a leading regional hub through the TRIFIC Special Economic Zone
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Ethiopia still faces difficulties bringing its Amhara and Oromia conflicts to an end, which continue to impact investor perceptions of the market, and remain a drain on Government resources. New investment is still only trickling in. An investment grade downgrade by Fitch spelt bad news for the economy but debt relief from international institutions is on the horizon.
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Nervousness remains over Ethiopia’s ability to hold the peace in Tigray and re-establish order over other restive provinces, particularly Amhara. However, Ethiopia’s international partners are eager to normalise relations, and the Government is stepping up efforts to liberalise aspects of the economy, with signs that economic growth is picking up.
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Just as Ethiopia was righting itself after the Tigray conflict, a new outbreak of violence between the Federal Government and local militias in Amhara threatens to derail the restoration of peace and prosperity in the country. While international bodies and investors are concerned, the Government seeks to restore control through a State of Emergency. The renewed conflict is a reminder of the broader constitutional complexities in Ethiopia which still need to be resolved. Nonetheless, the economy continues to grow, and IMF/WB talks with the Government are progressing well.
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INTRODUCTION The Finance Act (“the Act”), 2023 received Presidential assent on 26th June 2023. Most of the changes will be effective from 1st July 2023, which is the Government’s fiscal year, while a few will be effective from 1st September 2023 and 1st January 2024. Most of the proposed changes in the Finance Bill, 2023
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With improving international relations, particularly with key Western partner the United States, and an economic peace dividend from the end of the Tigray conflict emerging, Ethiopia’s prospects are improving. The Government is forging ahead with economic reform programmes, and actively seeking foreign investment.
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Progress continues to be made on implementing the Tigray Peace Agreement, drawing a line under the bloody two-year-old conflict, though the lingering presence of Eritrean troops poses a potential threat to its success. The Government seems intent on reaping a peace dividend as it presses ahead with its reform programme, focusing on liberalising the banking, telecoms and logistics sectors.
Read MoreEast Africa Tax Developments
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2023 is looking to be a considerably brighter year for Ethiopia as the peace in Tigray appears to be holding and both sides implement terms of the Peace Accord. While rebuilding costs are very considerable, and instability continues to plague parts of the country, the Government appears intent on restoring an attractive environment for international investors and is driving a number of initiatives to increase FDI.
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Ethiopia’s prospects have brightened considerably since the ceasefire in the Tigray war and the apparently successful peace accords. While there will still be obstacles to a lasting peace and constitutional settlement, most observers agree that the war is now over. Economic activity is picking up and the Government is pursuing a variety of valuable economic reform measures.
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The peace deal between Ethiopia’s Federal Government and the Tigray region’s rebel leadership appears to be sticking, with concrete measures taken to implement its conditions, including the disarmament of rebel forces and resumption of supplies of goods and services to Tigray. Unresolved points remain the continued presence of Eritrean troops and uncertainty about the long-term constitutional arrangements for Ethiopia. However, the improved environment means investor sentiment is lifting and conditions for a rise in FDI are emerging.
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The signing of a Peace Agreement between the rebel Tigrayan leadership and the Federal Government, after a two-year civil war, if upheld, will provide significant respite to a battered population, and open up investor appetite in the country again. Obstacles remain, including the status of Eritrean forces and Amharan militias, but it appears the will is there to address these.
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There are tentative hopes that a renewed peace push may dampen the Tigray conflict and pave the way to a peaceful resolution; however, given the volatility displayed on both sides and the yawning gap in their demands, this is still far from assured. While the conflict rages in the North, large parts of the country remain open for business and some encouraging reforms in the financial and telecoms sector begin to bear fruit.
Read MoreThe EAA is delighted to welcome the Minister for Financial Services and Good Governance of Mauritius, the Honourable Mahon Kuman Seeruttun to a networking meeting for Members in London. He will be accompanied by a delegation of senior ministerial officials. Click the link for more information and to register for the event
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Despite talk of an overcrowded market and funding retreat, fintech is proving its mettle in the African markets, serving as a lever to financial inclusion and increasingly bringing innovative solutions to market that are uniquely designed for the heterogeneity of the African population.
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The use and acceptance of cryptocurrencies In Africa is becoming more and more prevalent, and there have been recent positive signs in countries such Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania, and Uganda. Our commentary highlights developments in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and is reproduced courtesy of Bowmans.
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The prospects for a negotiated settlement of the Tigrayan conflict are looking more hopeful, with the outline of a process in place. There are still mountains to climb as the differences between the two sides remain significant. Other ethnic conflicts continue to batter other parts of the country. That the Tigray war may be drawing to a close has buoyed economic sentiment, though the war and global economic pressures continue to weigh on the economy.
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The ceasefire in Tigray largely continues to hold, and aid flows have begun to arrive in greater quantities in the region. However, separatist and nationalist movements continue to arise in other parts of the country leading to continued security uncertainty and concerns over civil liberties in the country as a whole. Meanwhile, costs to the economy from the war at home and in Ukraine continue to rise.
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The direction of travel is a positive one, with a continued widening of the democratic space and improved view of Tanzania on the world stage. However, there is much more to be done domestically to create a business environment that is conducive for existing and potential investors
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The Conflict in Tigray continues to dampen with the announcement of a truce and ceasefire by the sides. The peace process is still not defined but rhetoric from both sides indicates a desire to find a solution.
Read MoreA recent Court of Appeal decision in the UK highlights the increasing obligations on banks to not only verify who is giving them instructions in respect to a particular account, but also review the nature of those instructions. Banks may not be able to defend their actions by simply saying they acted on the authority
Read MoreJeff Gable – Head of Macro Research Absa and Anthony Kirui – Head of Markets Absa Securities gave a presentation on the Africa Financial Markets Index 2021 at the January 2022 meeting. To see his presentation please click on the link below: Financial Markets Index 2021, by Jeff Gable, Absa
Read MoreKihara Maina, CEO, I & M Bank Kenya gave a presentation on Investment in East Africa: the risks and opportunities in the region as seen through the eyes of an investor, at the EAA’s global meeting on 28th July 2021. To view his presentation click on the link below: Risks and opportunities in East Africa:
Read MoreGauri Gupta, Director IM Burbidge Capital Limited, gave a presentation at the January 2022 members meeting on the opportunities and the investment landscape in East African markets. To view his presentation click on his link below: I&M Burbidge Capital presentation on East African markets
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On 23rd November 2021, the Ministers responsible for East African Community (EAC) Affairs recommended to Member State Leaders the entry of the DRC into the economic block. Our commentary sets out some background on this vast country and what opportunities lie in store for investors.
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As the general election nears, there is concern of disruptions and the impact that this could have on the economy.
Read MoreChances for some form of negotiated settlement in Ethiopia’s bitter Tigray conflict are better than they have been at any time since hostilities broke out.
Read MoreCovid-19 cases were declining but have risen again in August. The vaccine roll-out is progressing. There are no major changes in the political scene.
Read MoreThe Tigray conflict appears to be escalating and spreading to other parts of the country, threatening a deteriorating security situation more broadly in the country.
Read MoreThere appears to be an increasing push towards new leadership with opposition parties joining forces.
Read MoreAfter a period in the investment outhouse, risks are definitely becoming more manageable again. The business environment may still be relatively speaking opaque, but it’s certainly worth getting in early.
Read MoreEAA CEO Toby Latta talks to Tara O’Connor of Africa Risk Consulting about opportunities and risks in the region
Read MoreOn the political front there are growing concerns that the opposition is being supressed with heavy handed tactics and the world is taking note of this. Economically, a good start to 2021 is being impeded by a surge in Covid-19 cases.
Read MoreThe EAA analyses the results of its Members survey on the opportunities and risks in the region
Read MorePolitically, there is a fly in the ointment with the recent arrest of opposition leaders. The country is finally monitoring Covid-19 which is important in bringing it back into the global fold. With regard to the economy, the President is certainly looking to keep her inauguration promises.
Read MorePolitical uncertainty predicted for the next 18 months until the elections, while the economy shows signs of recovering from the pandemic decline
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Toby Latta, CEO, Eastern Africa Association, shared members’ views that were received from a survey on the business climate, risks and opportunities in the region at the July global meeting of members’ (28th July 2021). EAA Members Survey opportunities and risks (1)
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