Insights

COMMENTARY: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE DRC

The commentary in this issue of our newsletter was provided by our member, Declan Galvin, Managing Director of a Nairobi-based consultancy, Exigent Risk Advisory. Exigent Risk Advisory supports investors navigate risk across African markets through geopolitical risk management, intelligence reporting, due diligence, and commercial investigations. He can be reached on info@exigent-risk.com. The Association is grateful for his contribution. This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke . The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Association.

Kenya Update. October 2025

With the passing of the Opposition Leader, Raila Odinga, the country could face political uncertainty with regards to the Broad-Based Government, although the President is seeking to expand this initiative. Debt levels continue to rise but the Government is seeking ways to reduce the impact.

COMMENTARY: POPULATION TRENDS

This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke . The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Association.

Kenya Update. September 2025

Kenya’s political environment remains somewhat unsettled with the continued chants for a change in leadership from a generally disgruntled population. Corrupt practices seem to be on the rise with several scandals being reported. The economic numbers seem positive but it is unclear whether this is being reflected on the ground. S&P Global upgraded Kenya’s foreign currency rating to B from B- with a stable outlook.

COMMENTARY: FREEDOM IN PERIL

It is apparent that the world is experiencing less Freedom of Expression when comparing the turn of the century to today. In Eastern Africa, all the countries are rated as Not Free except for Kenya, which is classed as Partially Free. As matters currently stand in the region, this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke . The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Association.

Kenya Update. July 2025

Protests against the President and the Government have restarted and have been marred with excessive Police action with several deaths and injuries reported. The economy is stagnating and the recent increase in fuel prices is likely to exacerbate this.

COMMENTARY: LEADING THE CONVERSATION ON AI AND CORPORATE ACCOUNTABILITY

This is a commentary, and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. June 2025

The country appears to be in permanent campaign mode even though the next elections are over 2 years away. Political fighting, and indeed infighting, is increasing. The economy is not performing to its potential and is not growing as rapidly as its neighbors.

COMMENTARY: TARIFF WARS AND OTHER STORIES

This is a commentary, and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. April 2025

The country continues to be in political confusion with the Broad-Based Government agreement between President William Ruto and Opposition Leader Raila Odinga. The debt situation is getting worse and is now at 65.9% of GDP and expected to grow further. Lower revenue collections and increased Government expenditure is not helping this equation.

COMMENTARY: A REVIEW OF MAURITIUS

This review of Mauritius was kindly provided by AXYS Financial Services Group who recently became a member of the Association. We are grateful for their contribution. This is a commentary, and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. March 2025

Political alignments appear to be on the cards following the failed election bid by Mr Raila Odinga for the post of AUC Chair. It remains to be seen what this will entail and whether the country will get a Government of National Unity. The economy remains sluggish as evidenced by the tax collections in the 6 months to 31st December 2024.

COMMENTARY: WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2025

The world in 2025 may not be much different from 2024 except if many of the promises made by President Donald Trump are kept. Those may well cause a global disruption. 2025 may be the year of enhanced Artificial Intelligence with China joining the fray. Climate Change is likely to continue to plague us. This is a commentary, and comments are welcome by email to: info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. January 2025

Political uncertainty continues with the President and the Government’s approval declining. The economy is expected to grow but there are major concerns about spending power, leading to reduced consumption. Moody’s upgrade of the country’s outlook to positive is good news, although the rating of Caa1 has been retained.

COMMENTARY: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN INSURANCE

This commentary has been kindly provided by Dr Dipankar Acharya, MBA; FIII; PhD, who is the Chief Executive Officer at APA Insurance, a long-standing member of the Association. Dr Acharya will be presenting on this subject at our next meeting on 29th January 2025. This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. December 2024

President William Ruto and his Government are facing severe backlash from various quarters of the country including religious organisations. While the macro-economic indicators are positive, the reality on the ground is different.

COMMENTARY: INCREASED CAUTION AROUND TERROR-RELATED RISKS IS APPROPRIATE THIS TIME OF YEAR

Declan Galvin is the Managing Director of Exigent Risk Advisory, a Nairobi-based strategic risk advisory firm dedicated to unlocking opportunities for clients across Africa’s emerging markets. He can be reached at Declan@exigent-risk.com or on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/declan-galvin/. This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. October 2024

The Gen Z uprising appears to have tapered off which has seen an uptick in business activity in Kenya during August. The new “broad based” Government is in place and it remains to be seen whether this will be effective. The economy has been largely stagnant because of the protests in June and July.

COMMENTARY: EASTERN AFRICA POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. September 2024

The Gen Z uprising appears to have tapered off which has seen an uptick in business activity in Kenya during August. The new “broad based” Government is in place and it remains to be seen whether this will be effective. The economy has been largely stagnant because of the protests in June and July.

COMMENTARY: VUCA TO BANI – The transition from a VUCA World to a BANI World

This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. July 2024

The short-term outlook for Kenya is bleak with continued protests, political uncertainty, and an economy that is clearly not performing to its potential. The downgrade of the country’s rating to negative will not help the situation. The fact that there is no functioning Cabinet, pending the vetting process being completed, at the moment adds to the woes in Kenya.

COMMENTARY: EAA TURNS 60 – CELEBRATING 60 YEARS OF ACCELERATING SUSTAINABLE TRADE AND INVESTMENT IN EAST AFRICA – 1964-2024

The Association would like to thank the membership for their continued support, the diplomatic community and Government Ministries/Departments who give time to the Association’s Local Advisory Committee Members’ (EAA-LAC) periodically. We have survived 60 years because of you and highly appreciate this! Indeed, Dr Cullen comments: “The EAA continues to exist, suggesting that businesses perceive it to have been and remain useful”. Here’s to another 60 years!

Kenya Update. June 2024

Politically things seem confused with rifts in both the Ruling Party and the Opposition. While Government is suggesting a thriving economy, the reality on the ground seem to be completely different. Significant proposed increases in taxes could add to a slowdown in Kenya’s economy.

Commentary: 2024- EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA IN EASTERN AFRICA

This is a commentary and comments are welcome by email to info@eaa.co.ke

Kenya Update. April 2024

Politically the landscape has not changed. On the economic front, while macroeconomic growth indicates high growth, consumer spending has declined with the current Government’s taxation policy.

Commentary: 2024- MAKE OR BREAK

The United Nations Foundation points to 5 global issues that will shape 2024: crises occurring everywhere together; a plethora of elections; fixing the financial system and potential shifts in power; safeguarding rights and equity; and future-proofing the UN.

Kenya Update. March 2024

The possible exit of Opposition Leader, Raila Odinga, from active Kenyan politics could leave the country without any checks and balances on Government policy. The Opposition will need to regroup in the lead-up to the 2027 general election. The high taxation that the Kenya Kwanza regime has introduced is having a marked effect on disposable incomes and more so on consumer spending resulting in a slowdown in the economy.

Commentary: EASTERN AFRICA OUTLOOK 2024

Eastern Africa is set to experience a landscape of modest economic recovery characterised by a stable median GDP growth rate, indicative of a recovery phase across most nations. However, the region grapples with significant challenges, primarily due to escalating sovereign debts that exert fiscal and monetary constraints, posing risks to sustained economic stability. Amidst this, political uncertainties in several countries further complicate the regional outlook. Despite these challenges, opportunities abound, particularly in the infrastructure and energy sectors, which are key drivers for future growth and development in the region. This intricate balance of growth, economic challenges, and opportunities sets the…

Kenya Update. January 2024

The current regime appears to be at loggerheads with its neighbours, the Judiciary and the people, and this is a major concern. The IMF has given a largely positive outlook for the economy but the reality on the ground seems to be quite different.

Kenya Update. December 2023

Politically the country seems to have lost direction as policy makers are creating untold confusion with the policies introduced increasing the cost of doing business in the country. The economy is not performing anywhere near its potential and needs a boost from somewhere. Citizens are complaining of being over taxed with their disposable income having fallen significantly.

Kenya Update. October 2023

Politically the country is waiting for the outcome of the National Dialogue. Economically, Kenya is facing an uphill task in the short-term with a lot centring on repayment of the Eurobond next year and a sound debt management plan thereafter. Higher taxes are having a marked effect on collections and the cost of doing business.

Kenya Update. September 2023

t is a relief, to see that at least the agenda for the bipartisan talks between the Government and the Opposition has been agreed. It remains to be seen if the discussions will be fruitful and result in a more unified country. The economy, while still growing, is perhaps stuttering with significant increases in taxes and consequently reductions in disposable income and so consumer spending.

Kenya Update. July 2023

Kenya is facing political turmoil with the Opposition ramping up demonstrations that are now seeing the population come out spontaneously. It is imperative that some form of lasting truce is found between the Government and the Opposition. Inflationary pressures continue to impact the country and this is creating untold hardship on the citizens.

Kenya Update. June 2023

Politically the country continues to be unsettled with the Opposition constantly threatening demonstrations and the Government appearing to be in a confused state. The World Bank is optimistic on the economy, although the reality is that the short-term is likely to be hard going.

Kenya Update. Apr 2023

Political instability brought about by the demonstrations organised by the Opposition has left considerable uncertainty and taken its toll on the economy. Debt payments are rising and for the first time ever higher than normal recurrent expenditure. Economic activity is subdued and Government appears unable to meet its monthly recurrent expenditure obligations.

Kenya Update. Mar 2023

Politically things look confused as the new Government sets its policies. The Opposition is planning demonstrations against the cost of living which is a concern. The economy appears to be stagnating and with tax revenues slowing down.

Kenya Update. Jan 2023

The Opposition appear to be on the war path threatening to hold rallies around the country protesting at what they continue to believe was a stolen election and against the Government’s handling of the economy and the promises it made. The economy is showing signs of slowing down but is still likely to perform better than regional and global averages.

Kenya Update. Dec 2022

The new Government is starting to keep some of its campaign promises but not quite in the way they said. A cohesive Executive is essential, but this is currently lacking. The country’s forex levels, and debt are at alarming levels and overall spending power has fallen.

Kenya Update. Oct 2022

The new Government has taken over and seems to be making all the right noises in dealing with the problems being faced in Kenya. Whether it will be able to meet its promises remains to be seen, but without doubt, the current economic climate is going to be an issue. The country is performing above average on the economic front, but poverty levels are on the rise.

Commentary: Developments in use of Cryptocurrencies

The use and acceptance of cryptocurrencies In Africa is becoming more and more prevalent, and there have been recent positive signs in countries such Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania, and Uganda. Our commentary highlights developments in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and is reproduced courtesy of Bowmans.

Kenya Update. June 2022

Smooth elections will be critical to Kenya and IEBC will have to step up and ensure this happens. The leading candidates have chosen their running mates, adding a new dimension to the race. The economy is progressing well but may face headwinds in the coming months.

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology

1 – 7 June 2022

Africa Risk Consulting monitors events around the region and provides users of the EAA website with this weekly summary.

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology

25 – 31 May 2022

Africa Risk Consulting monitors events around the region and provides users of the EAA website with this weekly summary.

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology

4th – 10th May 2022

Africa Risk Consulting monitors events around the region and provides users of the EAA website with this weekly summary.

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology 20-26 April 2022

Update for the week 20-26 Apr 2022

Africa Risk Consulting monitors events around the region and provides users of the EAA website with this weekly summary.

Legal Update from ALN: A Dynamic Shift in Bankers’ Duty of Care

A recent Court of Appeal decision in the UK highlights the increasing obligations on banks to not only verify who is giving them instructions in respect to a particular account, but also review the nature of those instructions. Banks may not be able to defend their actions by simply saying they acted on the authority

Risks and Opportunities in East Africa: view of an investor

Kihara Maina, CEO, I & M Bank Kenya gave a presentation on Investment in East Africa: the risks and opportunities in the region as seen through the eyes of an investor, at the EAA’s global meeting on 28th July 2021. To view his presentation click on the link below: Risks and opportunities in East Africa:

EAC Customs Union and non-tariff barriers: Hadi Sheikh

Hadi Sheikh, Director & Partner, Westminster Consulting gave a presentation on the East African Community’s (EAC) Customs Union and non-tariff barriers in the October 2021 Members meeting. So see his presentation, please click below: EAC CUSTOMS UNION – A PRESENTATION BY HADI SHEIKH TO EAA MEMBERS ON 13.10.2021

Investment Landscape in East African markets. IM Burbidge Capital

Gauri Gupta, Director IM Burbidge Capital Limited, gave a presentation at the January 2022 members meeting on the opportunities and the investment landscape in East African markets. To view his presentation click on his link below: I&M Burbidge Capital presentation on East African markets

Data protection law in Kenya, Uganda and Zambia

Daniel Mwathe, Brian Kalule, and Joshua Mwamulima of Bowmans Law gave a presentation on Data Protection rules in Kenya, Uganda and Zambia at the January 2022 Members meeting in Nairobi. You can view their presentation by clicking on the link below: Bowmans Law presentation on Data Protection

Kenya update January 2022

As the general election nears, there is concern of disruptions and the impact that this could have on the economy.

Kenya Update March 2022

Economically the country is recovering well but the upward trend could reverse if there is political violence around the election.

Kenya Update Sept 2021

An election in 2022 is creating some uncertainty, particularly as regards succession.

Kenya Update October 2021

Covid-19 cases are declining and the vaccination programme is well underway. Politically there is some uncertainty around the 2022 election and the succession.

Kenya Update November 2021

Political uncertainty could make the next twelve months difficult although the economy is showing signs of recovery.

Kenya Update June 2021

Political stability is becoming a concern and the economy is struggling with the impact of Covid-19. The vaccination drive while launched has slowed down because of a lack of doses.

Uganda Update June 2021

On the political front there are growing concerns that the opposition is being supressed with heavy handed tactics and the world is taking note of this. Economically, a good start to 2021 is being impeded by a surge in Covid-19 cases.

Kenya update July 2021

Covid-19 cases are on the rise and the country appears to be heading into another wave. Politically, while relatively stable at the moment, matters could change rapidly as the country moves towards the election.

Uganda Update July 2021

Covid-19 infections are showing a significant rise in June which resulted in the country’s second lockdown which is due to come to an end in July. The economy, while showing signs of recovery in the early part of the year, has slowed down again. Politically there has been little or no change since the election.

Kenya update March 2021

The country may be headed to a third wave of the pandemic. Politically matters are in a state of flux whilst the economy is showing signs of revival.

Kenya update April 2021

Political uncertainty predicted for the next 18 months until the elections, while the economy shows signs of recovering from the pandemic decline

Kenya update January 2021

Political uncertainty but likely economic recovery as Kenya goes in to 2021

Eastern Africa Members’ Survey on Business Climate, risks & opportunities

Toby Latta, CEO, Eastern Africa Association, shared members’ views that were received from a survey on the business climate, risks and opportunities in the region at the July global meeting of members’ (28th July 2021). EAA Members Survey opportunities and risks (1)

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COMMENTARY: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE DRC

Kenya Update. October 2025

COMMENTARY: POPULATION TRENDS

Kenya Update. September 2025

COMMENTARY: FREEDOM IN PERIL

Kenya Update. July 2025

COMMENTARY: LEADING THE CONVERSATION ON AI AND CORPORATE ACCOUNTABILITY

Kenya Update. June 2025

COMMENTARY: TARIFF WARS AND OTHER STORIES

Kenya Update. April 2025

COMMENTARY: A REVIEW OF MAURITIUS

Kenya Update. March 2025

COMMENTARY: WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2025

Kenya Update. January 2025

COMMENTARY: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN INSURANCE

Kenya Update. December 2024

COMMENTARY: INCREASED CAUTION AROUND TERROR-RELATED RISKS IS APPROPRIATE THIS TIME OF YEAR

Kenya Update. October 2024

COMMENTARY: EASTERN AFRICA POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

Kenya Update. September 2024

COMMENTARY: VUCA TO BANI – The transition from a VUCA World to a BANI World

Kenya Update. July 2024

COMMENTARY: EAA TURNS 60 – CELEBRATING 60 YEARS OF ACCELERATING SUSTAINABLE TRADE AND INVESTMENT IN EAST AFRICA – 1964-2024

Kenya Update. June 2024

Commentary: 2024- EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA IN EASTERN AFRICA

Kenya Update. April 2024

Commentary: 2024- MAKE OR BREAK

Kenya Update. March 2024

Commentary: EASTERN AFRICA OUTLOOK 2024

Kenya Update. January 2024

Kenya Update. December 2023

Kenya Update. October 2023

Kenya Update. September 2023

Kenya Update. July 2023

Kenya Update. June 2023

Kenya Update. Apr 2023

Kenya Update. Mar 2023

Kenya Update. Jan 2023

Kenya Update. Dec 2022

Kenya Update. Oct 2022

Commentary: Developments in use of Cryptocurrencies

Kenya’s Presidential Election – Seminar

Kenya Update. June 2022

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology 1 – 7 June 2022

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology 25 – 31 May 2022

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology 4th – 10th May 2022

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology 20-26 April 2022

Legal Update from ALN: A Dynamic Shift in Bankers’ Duty of Care

Risks and Opportunities in East Africa: view of an investor

EAC Customs Union and non-tariff barriers: Hadi Sheikh

Investment Landscape in East African markets. IM Burbidge Capital

Data protection law in Kenya, Uganda and Zambia

Kenya update January 2022

Kenya Update March 2022

Kenya Update Sept 2021

Kenya Update October 2021

Kenya Update November 2021

Kenya Update June 2021

Uganda Update June 2021

Kenya update July 2021

Uganda Update July 2021

Kenya update March 2021

Kenya update April 2021

Kenya update January 2021

Eastern Africa Members’ Survey on Business Climate, risks & opportunities

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology

1 – 7 June 2022

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology

25 – 31 May 2022

ARC East Africa Weekly Chronology

4th – 10th May 2022